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Session 10: Earthquake Hazards 1: Before the earthquake: predicting, forecasting, alerting

Co-Conveners: ZHANG Yongxian (Institute of Earthquake Forecasting, CEA, China), CHEN Chieh-Hung (State Key Laboratory of Geohazard Prevention and Geoenvironment Protection, Chengdu University of Technology, China), KOSSOBOKOV Vladimir (Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Russia)，PERESAN Antonella （Seismological Research Centre National Institute of Oceanography and Applied Geophysics – OGS, Italy），WERNER Max（School of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, UK）
Description: Earthquakes are not random occurrences but do lack an obvious principle of organization. Instead, earthquakes appear self-organized phenomena within Earth’s hierarchy ranging from tectonic plates to grains of rocks that move relative to each other. Significant steps have been made towards assessing earthquake space-time-magnitude relationships and recognition of multifactorial patterns, showing the potential for reproducible, testable, and reliable operational earthquake forecasting. Regrettably, existing systems of operational early warning after an earthquake occurs have large “dead/blind zones” due to uncertainty in quick determinations of its size and location. Pre-earthquake anomalous phenomena exhibit spatiotemporal characteristics; realistic forecast assessment may consider different time scales from decades to months (or even weeks, or days) at global, regional, and local scales. This session encourages the exchange of knowledge and sharing of good practices acquired through various methodologies. Contributions addressing the following theoretical and practical issues are welcome:
• Relevant state-of-the-art multidisciplinary observations.
• Systematic analysis, physical interpretation, and modelling of earthquake related processes.
• Validation and statistical justification of various candidates to precursors of catastrophic earthquakes.
• Earthquake forecast/prediction experiments and testing of predictability.
• Time-dependent seismic hazard assessment based on reproducible observables.
• Methods for cascading risks assessment.
• Problems in dissemination of earthquake related information.
Oral